covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
covariants
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544 | 51 | |
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R | Python | |
MIT License | GNU Affero General Public License v3.0 |
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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
- 15 states seeing 'high' or 'very high' levels of respiratory illness: CDC
- “‘Natural” Disasters
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#1999 - Robert Kennedy Jr.
It doesn’t have to be just a ‘coincidence’ though; seems bizarre to completely ignore something else that was occurring during this time—the Covid pandemic? If we look at the excess mortality, it showed a temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality, and no temporal correlation with vaccine uptake. Same USA plot for age 18-64. The UK data also showed lower excess mortality in 2021 (all-cause, non-Covid, and Covid). On Euromomo you can plot z-scores for evidence of excess mortality over time by country, here are the plots for 15-44, and all ages. It doesn’t seem like there was excess mortality in the 15-44 age bracket (maybe except Hungary), or vaccine-related excess mortality, but it does appear there was pandemic-related excess. There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates, and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake available for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero/low-Covid and highly vaccinated) had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. That doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination just seems really difficult to reconcile with the data.
- TIL after the attack on Pearl Harbor, the USS West Virginia battleship was salvaged six months later. During the salvage operation, a calendar was discovered in an airtight room indicating three sailors survived for another 16 days after the event.
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The Explosive Legacy of the Pandemic Hand Sanitizer Boom
> The obvious fearmongering and irrationality, especially from so-called "experts", was quite intense and prolific in Canada, too.
So much death and suffering and bereavement and sorrow the scale of which I have never witnessed in my entire life and I still read comments like these. Baffling!
A more serious take: excess deaths worldwide put us at 20+ millions deaths [1].
[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
- PhD Looks into Avian Flu and is "really scared".
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Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts
It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...
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Illinois man was a Covid skeptic from the beginning and reposted all anti-Fauci posts he received. Because he beat Covid in October 2021, he thought he was immune. Unfortunately he caught Covid again in December 2022, and was in and out of the hospital until he passed in May 2023.
The official numbers in Russia are pure bullshit. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates is a better estimate.
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WHO downgrades COVID pandemic, says it's no longer emergency
Btw if we look at the excess mortality data, it showed a pretty good temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality. Similar with UK data. There are also data from many other countries available, e.g. Economist, and latest plots for 100 countries. This would seem to reconcile with bodies like the USA CDC, UK ONS etc. claiming that the vast majority (>85%) of C19 deaths has C19 as the underlying cause.
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I know the vaccinated lurk here all day long hoping for a gotcha moment that’ll never come, but I have a question for the vaccinated.
There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates. Here are the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero-Covid/low-Covid, highly vaccinated, and relatively less affected by the pandemic) that had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. This doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination seems a really difficult one to reconcile with the data.
covariants
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At what point do you think things will change?
"Publicly available data on the number of analyzed sequences over two-week windows for each country were extracted from covariants.org and Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) initiative databases [3, 4]."
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China's Covid cases hit record as dissent grows over tough restrictions
This process has produced thousands of variants already, and a considerable number that have bypassed immunity to previous variants. https://covariants.org/
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COVID in California: Newer variants cause more symptoms, study says
I've also found covariants to be pretty useful, especially if you're looking at other countries
- Scientists Fear New COVID Strains Are Deadly—Just Like 2020 Wave
- Some people are saying the 2nd or 3rd time you get COVID the symptoms are much milder. Some are saying the symptoms their symptoms were not as bad their first time having it. For those who’ve had it more than once, how was your experience?
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Vancouver travels
Variants: As of June 13th, Canada is 56% BA.2, 29% BA.2.12.1,10% BA.5, and 5% BA.4. Although BA.4 and BA.5 are not yet dominant in Canada, they are rapidly replacing BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 as they were each at 2% on the last reporting of May 30th thus representing a ~>3x increased prevalence within that short period of time. As the growth of BA.4 and BA.5 is following an exponential growth pattern, I expect that in the next reporting (June 30th) they will both be dominant. I think it's safe to say that they are already dominant though based on this. Source: https://covariants.org/
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How many people here are ecstatic about not falling victim to vaccine propaganda, after reading studies showing its ineffectiveness?
A lot of scientists said that using an mRNA vaccine against a coronavirus was completely stupid to begin with. That mass vaccination would favor immune evasion and render the vaccines worthless. And that's exactly what happened. You can see that very clearly on covariants.org . We were lucky, the new variants were a lot less deadly than the old ones. If a variant like Marseille 4 popped up and took over, it would have been a slaughter. We gave it a shot. We saw very clearly that it didn't work, and moreso, that it was dangerous to use a mass vaccination strategy for a virus that mutates and recombines a lot. Cause as immune evasion occurs, and the vaccine shows to be a lot less efficient than we hoped, this makes people at risk just as vulnerable as before.
- 1,000 cases of new Omicron subvariant BA.2.20 found in Ontario: PHO
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If natural immunity is so great on its own, why the need for vaccines anyway?
So it's not really hoping for the best. It's using the best tools we have to reach herd immunity, both natural and artificial. The problem when we mass vaccinate, with mRNA vaccines that focus on a spike, is that variants that can circonvolute the immunity put in place by the vaccine, have it a lot easier than before to take over. You can see this in the data on covariants.org very clearly. This renders the vaccine a lot less effective as those variants have no natural competition. Thus putting the people that really need the vaccine, the people at risk, in a lot more danger, even vaccinated. This is why a lot of experts advised since the start to not mass vaccinate like we did. Sadly they weren't heard.
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An attempt at resuming the concerns from experts about the vaccines.
Viruses are part of our eco-system. We evolve in a world with viruses, bacteria, etc... This means there is natural competition between them. And if you mass vaccinate people against a virus, like the original strain of covid from Wuhan, this makes that particular variant disappear. The variants that can circonvolute the immunity put in place by the vaccine have a lot more chances to take over as they don't have natural competition with the original strain. If you go on a website like covariants.org, you can see that variants take over a lot faster now than they did before the vaccination. Because they have a lot more freedom. These are phenomena that we already witnessed in vaccination of intensively bred chickens and that are well studied. This is why even scientifical authorities, that are part of the consensus and the official voices for the government and the scientific community, like Fauci or Delfraissy, had concerns since the start of the vaccine rollout about this. However, it was worth a shot. Since then, we learned that those doubts were founded. Yet we still prone mass vaccination as some kind of panacea against the pandemic.
What are some alternatives?
covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker - Source code and data for The Economist's covid-19 excess deaths tracker
COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen_in_Deutschland - Im Datensatz 'COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen' werden die aktuellen Zahlen der nach den Vorgaben des Infektionsschutzgesetzes - IfSG - erfassten hospitalisierten COVID-19-Fälle bereitgestellt.
coronavirus-dashboard - Dashboard for tracking Coronavirus (COVID-19) across the UK
covid-19-germany-gae - COVID-19 statistics for Germany. For states and counties. With time series data. Daily updates. Official RKI numbers.
covid-pass-verifier - The COVID Pass Verifier app is the official NHS COVID Pass Verifier for England and Wales. NHS COVID Pass Verifier app is a secure way to scan an individual’s NHS COVID Pass and check that they have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, had a negative test, or have recovered from COVID-19.
ncov - Nextstrain build for novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2
duckduckgo-locales - Translation files for <a href="https://duckduckgo.com"> </a>
COVID-19 - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
covid-19-excess-deaths-track
covid-19-data - A repository of data on coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S.
covid-19-data - Data on COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases, deaths, hospitalizations, tests • All countries • Updated daily by Our World in Data
covid-19-the-economist-globa