covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
covid-19-the-economist-globa
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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
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Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts
It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...
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WHO downgrades COVID pandemic, says it's no longer emergency
Btw if we look at the excess mortality data, it showed a pretty good temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality. Similar with UK data. There are also data from many other countries available, e.g. Economist, and latest plots for 100 countries. This would seem to reconcile with bodies like the USA CDC, UK ONS etc. claiming that the vast majority (>85%) of C19 deaths has C19 as the underlying cause.
- Brazil hits 700,000 virus deaths, 2nd highest in the world
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[OC] Total excess mortality per million people during the pandemic
Easiest is to use the linear trend in deaths over the 2015-2019 interval (be it increase or decrease). Doing so, and comparing all countries up to the present (using models to account for non-reporting in recent weeks / many countries) you get this: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
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The death records show the COVID vaccines are shortening lifespan worldwide
There’s also the latest data from many other countries (The Economist), and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess.
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[OC] Estimated Excess Mortality during COVID in the United States, China, Russia, and 8 European Countries
Additionally, these stats are based on excess mortality stats(not Covid-19 deaths) compiled by the Economist, not exactly a CPC news outlet, and nowhere in their article do they mention the data being suspect.
The Economist did not use the Chinese Covid data at all. As explained here, they simply look at projected life expectancy in populations vs actual life expectancy. Thus, that actually tracks the total number of people who died as a result of the pandemic, not just infection. So for example, increases in liver cirrhosis from alcoholism caused by lockdowns would be included.
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There were approximately 14.83 million excess deaths associated with COVID-19 across the world from 2020 to 2021, according to estimates by the WHO reported in Nature. This estimate is nearly three times the number of deaths reported to have been caused by COVID-19 over the same period.
The Economist puts it at 20.8 million: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
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Sweden fucked around and found out
Actually, Finland has a higher excess mortality rate than Sweden and Sweden has one of the lowest rates in Europe. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
covid-19-the-economist-globa
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Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts
It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...
- India defuses its population bomb: Fertility falls to two children per woman
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The Economist's excess deaths model
So, I'm not an R guy, but I pawed through some of the code. I get what you're saying, there's an environment, it needs to be just so, or it won't work. that's fine. And yeah, it does feel a lot like SQL.
I would point out this guy - https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...
that sort of has the look of something that took a pass or two to get right. And I think, would be nice to have a test case (sample call).
Again, not a hill I'm going to die on.
Overall, I don't think we have a big difference of opinion, yeah, it looks like gluing together libraries - as a non, native R speaker, I think I can make sense of the project, it's cool they put it out there, and I don't think there's anything _wrong_ with what they've got.
What are some alternatives?
covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker - Source code and data for The Economist's covid-19 excess deaths tracker
coronavirus-dashboard - Dashboard for tracking Coronavirus (COVID-19) across the UK
covid-pass-verifier - The COVID Pass Verifier app is the official NHS COVID Pass Verifier for England and Wales. NHS COVID Pass Verifier app is a secure way to scan an individual’s NHS COVID Pass and check that they have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, had a negative test, or have recovered from COVID-19.
duckduckgo-locales - Translation files for <a href="https://duckduckgo.com"> </a>
COVID-19 - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
covariants - Real-time updates and information about key SARS-CoV-2 variants, plus the scripts that generate this information.
covid-19-excess-deaths-track
covid-19-data - Data on COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases, deaths, hospitalizations, tests • All countries • Updated daily by Our World in Data
covid-19-data - A repository of data on coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S.
owid-static - Auto-generated static pages of the full ourworldindata.org site.
schnelltesttest.de
PNAS2021 - Data and Code for "Excess Mortality from COVID and non-COVID Causes in Minority Populations" by Cronin and Evans, 2021, PNAS