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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19 pandemic
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It doesn’t have to be just a ‘coincidence’ though; seems bizarre to completely ignore something else that was occurring during this time—the Covid pandemic? If we look at the excess mortality, it showed a temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality, and no temporal correlation with vaccine uptake. Same USA plot for age 18-64. The UK data also showed lower excess mortality in 2021 (all-cause, non-Covid, and Covid). On Euromomo you can plot z-scores for evidence of excess mortality over time by country, here are the plots for 15-44, and all ages. It doesn’t seem like there was excess mortality in the 15-44 age bracket (maybe except Hungary), or vaccine-related excess mortality, but it does appear there was pandemic-related excess. There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates, and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake available for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero/low-Covid and highly vaccinated) had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. That doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination just seems really difficult to reconcile with the data.