PNAS2021 VS covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

It doesn’t have to be just a ‘coincidence’ though; seems bizarre to completely ignore something else that was occurring during this time—the Covid pandemic? If we look at the excess mortality, it showed a temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality, and no temporal correlation with vaccine uptake. Same USA plot for age 18-64. The UK data also showed lower excess mortality in 2021 (all-cause, non-Covid, and Covid). On Euromomo you can plot z-scores for evidence of excess mortality over time by country, here are the plots for 15-44, and all ages. It doesn’t seem like there was excess mortality in the 15-44 age bracket (maybe except Hungary), or vaccine-related excess mortality, but it does appear there was pandemic-related excess. There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates, and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake available for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero/low-Covid and highly vaccinated) had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. That doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination just seems really difficult to reconcile with the data.

> The obvious fearmongering and irrationality, especially from so-called "experts", was quite intense and prolific in Canada, too.

So much death and suffering and bereavement and sorrow the scale of which I have never witnessed in my entire life and I still read comments like these. Baffling!

A more serious take: excess deaths worldwide put us at 20+ millions deaths [1].

[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.

https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...

The official numbers in Russia are pure bullshit. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates is a better estimate.

Btw if we look at the excess mortality data, it showed a pretty good temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality. Similar with UK data. There are also data from many other countries available, e.g. Economist, and latest plots for 100 countries. This would seem to reconcile with bodies like the USA CDC, UK ONS etc. claiming that the vast majority (>85%) of C19 deaths has C19 as the underlying cause.

There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates. Here are the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero-Covid/low-Covid, highly vaccinated, and relatively less affected by the pandemic) that had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. This doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination seems a really difficult one to reconcile with the data.