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> And this will not just be in government, it will be everywhere. The scariest part is that as people start to spend less time developing a skill set, and instead deferring to AI answers, you will cross a point where this problem can't be fixed (because nobody has the skills to fix it and the AI is trained on the outputs of previous generations of humans).
I think that would require AI development to approximately halt at close to the current level for over a lifetime.
Conditional on development halting, I'd agree with you. By analogy, there's this single, very useful, very powerful, set of "hidden methods that can be used to win all games, get rich, find love, determine the limits of thought itself!" — mathematics[0]. Do people like learning it? They do not. Calculator much easier. What a calculator does is none of that, calculators are merely arithmetic, but most people can't tell the difference between mathematics and arithmetic.
I think LLMs have the same effect on anything that can be expressed in words, and all the various image generator models have this effect on graphical arts. One must be extremely motivated to get past the "but the computer is better than me" hump.
However, I don't expect AI development to even approximately halt at anything close to the current level. There's a lot of room for self-play in domains like maths and computing where the proofs can be verified, and probably a lot of room for anything that can be RLHF'd, too. And that's also assuming we don't get any brain uploads; regardless of the question of "is such an upload of a human capable of consciousness", which absolutely matters, it may still be relevant to the economic issues of AI depending on the cost of running one depending on all the details of such an upload that I can't even begin to guess at at this point (last I heard, https://openworm.org was not actually measuring synaptic weights directly, but rather neural activity? I may be out of date, not my field).
Whatever happens, however good it does or doesn't get, I do expect something to go very weird before I reach the current state pension age — close enough that, if that something is "the machines break" or "society breaks", then there will still be plenty who remember the before times.
[0] https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/secrets-2