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covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker
Source code and data for The Economist's covid-19 excess deaths tracker
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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19 pandemic
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Yeah, see, that's the problem then and why it's all going wrong, you can look at the data here: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker/tree/master/source-data
Easiest is to use the linear trend in deaths over the 2015-2019 interval (be it increase or decrease). Doing so, and comparing all countries up to the present (using models to account for non-reporting in recent weeks / many countries) you get this: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates