thedatadiary
Source code, data, & working files for blog posts to www.thedatadiary.net (archived as of Nov '21) (by markjrieke)
us-potus-model
Code for a dynamic multilevel Bayesian model to predict US presidential elections. Written in R and Stan. (by TheEconomist)
thedatadiary | us-potus-model | |
---|---|---|
6 | 11 | |
0 | 1,199 | |
- | 0.3% | |
0.0 | 0.0 | |
over 2 years ago | over 3 years ago | |
R | HTML | |
MIT License | MIT License |
The number of mentions indicates the total number of mentions that we've tracked plus the number of user suggested alternatives.
Stars - the number of stars that a project has on GitHub. Growth - month over month growth in stars.
Activity is a relative number indicating how actively a project is being developed. Recent commits have higher weight than older ones.
For example, an activity of 9.0 indicates that a project is amongst the top 10% of the most actively developed projects that we are tracking.
Stars - the number of stars that a project has on GitHub. Growth - month over month growth in stars.
Activity is a relative number indicating how actively a project is being developed. Recent commits have higher weight than older ones.
For example, an activity of 9.0 indicates that a project is amongst the top 10% of the most actively developed projects that we are tracking.
thedatadiary
Posts with mentions or reviews of thedatadiary.
We have used some of these posts to build our list of alternatives
and similar projects. The last one was on 2021-10-02.
-
Update to the VA gov polling average I posted a few weeks ago
Code here: https://github.com/markjrieke/thedatadiary/tree/main/2021.10.01-virginia_governors_race
-
[OC] - Quick projection of Virginia's Governor Race
Data is from FiveThirtyEight's polling database. Made with r/ggplot2 - you can view the script to generate this plot here.
-
Quick projection of Virginia's governor election
I made a quick projection for Virginia's Governor race, based off the polls in FiveThirtyEight's tracker. I didn't build a full on election model, just weighted polls by recency & sample size and added an expected election day distribution. Here's the polling average/projection as of today:
-
Super simple VA governor projection
[I made a quick projection](https://github.com/markjrieke/thedatadiary/tree/main/2021.10.01-virginia_governors_race) for Virginia's Governor race, based off [the polls in FiveThirtyEight's tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/). I didn't build a full on election model, just weighted polls by recency & sample size and added an expected election day distribution.
- [OC] - ROC Curves for random forest/logistic classification of Titanic survivorship (w/o any tuning)
-
[OC] 7-day moving average of new COVID cases per million in each state/the US
Source code
us-potus-model
Posts with mentions or reviews of us-potus-model.
We have used some of these posts to build our list of alternatives
and similar projects. The last one was on 2023-05-19.
-
A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight
The Economists' models seem consistently whak. Like, on the eve of the 2020 election, they gave Biden a 97% chance of victory (which I mean...lol).
- Discussion Thread
-
[Q] How to apply a simple Monte Carlo simulation to a "prior distribution"
The usual way to do this is to use a probabilistic programming language (PPL) to infer a posterior distribution (step 2), then use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from that posterior distribution (step 3). A good example of this in Stan is https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model though other PPLs or interfaces including brms, rstanarm, or PyMC may be more approachable.
-
Majority of Texas voters want tighter gun control laws, a statewide poll finds
Then of course 2020 is predicated as an easy Biden win (this time as confident as ignorant people were about Hillary in 2016), and Biden did win by quite a margin.
-
Nate Silver's Finest Hour (Part 1 of 2)
He didn't just do commentary on the 2020 election, he and collaborators did The Economist Magazine's forecast for the 2020 election. (Note the links to source code and data at the bottom of the graphics.) And he demonstrated another one of his strong points: Being very open and honest about what he gets wrong, not just what he gets right.
-
Biden Has Lost Support Across All Groups Of Americans — But Especially Independents And Hispanics
(Source: The Economist poll tracker)
-
[OC] - Quick projection of Virginia's Governor Race
Definitely a fair assessment - but with political posts I try to avoid implicit party preference by showing only one party's probability of winning. The Economist's POTUS model does the same thing!
Definitely a fair assessment! In my defense, I styled it similarly to the Economists presidential forecast.
-
Daily Discussion Thread: August 22, 2021
Did Elliott Morris work on this? If I'm reading it correctly, the Electoral-college simulation says the most likely outcome was Joe Biden winning over 370 electoral votes.
- 40% of Consumers Would Switch to Municipal Broadband | Reviews.com