Us-potus-model Alternatives

us-potus-model reviews and mentions

• A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight
  2 projects | /r/neoliberal | 19 May 2023

  The Economists' models seem consistently whak. Like, on the eve of the 2020 election, they gave Biden a 97% chance of victory (which I mean...lol).

• Discussion Thread
  1 project | /r/neoliberal | 20 Oct 2022
• [Q] How to apply a simple Monte Carlo simulation to a "prior distribution"
  1 project | /r/statistics | 30 Jul 2022

  The usual way to do this is to use a probabilistic programming language (PPL) to infer a posterior distribution (step 2), then use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from that posterior distribution (step 3). A good example of this in Stan is https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model though other PPLs or interfaces including brms, rstanarm, or PyMC may be more approachable.

• Majority of Texas voters want tighter gun control laws, a statewide poll finds
  1 project | /r/TexasPolitics | 7 Jul 2022

  Then of course 2020 is predicated as an easy Biden win (this time as confident as ignorant people were about Hillary in 2016), and Biden did win by quite a margin.

• Nate Silver's Finest Hour (Part 1 of 2)
  1 project | /r/slatestarcodex | 6 Jul 2022

  He didn't just do commentary on the 2020 election, he and collaborators did The Economist Magazine's forecast for the 2020 election. (Note the links to source code and data at the bottom of the graphics.) And he demonstrated another one of his strong points: Being very open and honest about what he gets wrong, not just what he gets right.

• Biden Has Lost Support Across All Groups Of Americans — But Especially Independents And Hispanics
  1 project | /r/neoliberal | 21 Oct 2021

  (Source: The Economist poll tracker)

• [OC] - Quick projection of Virginia's Governor Race
  1 project | /r/dataisbeautiful | 7 Oct 2021

  Definitely a fair assessment - but with political posts I try to avoid implicit party preference by showing only one party's probability of winning. The Economist's POTUS model does the same thing!

  2 projects | /r/dataisbeautiful | 2 Oct 2021

  Definitely a fair assessment! In my defense, I styled it similarly to the Economists presidential forecast.

• Daily Discussion Thread: August 22, 2021
  1 project | /r/VoteDEM | 22 Aug 2021

  Did Elliott Morris work on this? If I'm reading it correctly, the Electoral-college simulation says the most likely outcome was Joe Biden winning over 370 electoral votes.

• 40% of Consumers Would Switch to Municipal Broadband | Reviews.com
  1 project | /r/municipalfiber | 4 May 2021
• A note from our sponsor - InfluxDB
  www.influxdata.com | 7 May 2024

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