owid-static VS covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Go have a look in ourworldindata.org pop in confirmed cases, and start comparing countrys (per million). Our graph just looks like EU countries graphs, Oz graph etc.. just a month or two behind. I talk with colleagues around the world every fortnight about this, and we are following in exactly the same pattern - a few cases, a few more cases, then BOOM, shit-tonnes of cases, and then it will burn out and case numbers will drop rapidly.

My point is, the OP has lost ALL perspective on what a serious problem is and fails to appreciated, and value, the progress we've made over the last two generations. Decline in death & disease, decline in the impact of climate (yes), decline in poverty, decline in racism, decline in cost of living, decline in the cost of energy, decline in pollution. These are not solve problems but are getting better. Sure some serious things suck like inflation, housing and the like but OP really needs some serious time in https://ourworldindata.org/ to figure out how good things are.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/

I pulled my numbers out of https://ourworldindata.org

An article from Hopkins made me aware of teh Oxford stringecy index: the internatial index used by scientist to measure the severity of governemnt measures in a country. This index is available for all countries on ourworldindata.org.

I know https://ourworldindata.org/ covers the data angle of this, but is there a good book or something that is more narrative about the impact of globalization on these countries?

Sehr sehr lesenswert hierzu ist die Our World in Data-Publikation "You want to reduce the carbon footprint of your food? Focus on what you eat, not whether your food is local".

Speaking of masks and Asia, let's do a little comparison between the US and the Philippines. I'm picking the Philippines for this because, 1) they've got the second-highest reported deaths in Southeast Asia, 2) their vaccination rate is slow and currently sits at approximately 55%, and 3) they have their own autocratic leader in Duterte. The Philippines is also an incredibly crowded country where proper social distancing is practically impossible. But what they do have is strictly enforced mask mandates. That said, here's a comparison between the two countries of their daily average confirmed cases per million people: https://i.imgur.com/yu4wtFc.png (source: https://ourworldindata.org)

Respectfully, they're using the same dataset on both ons.gov.uk and ourworldindata.org. Both listed at ~48.6 million people with two doses. The UK gov site uses percentage of adult population, ourworld uses percentage of total population, hence the different percentages listed on the sites.

It doesn’t have to be just a ‘coincidence’ though; seems bizarre to completely ignore something else that was occurring during this time—the Covid pandemic? If we look at the excess mortality, it showed a temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality, and no temporal correlation with vaccine uptake. Same USA plot for age 18-64. The UK data also showed lower excess mortality in 2021 (all-cause, non-Covid, and Covid). On Euromomo you can plot z-scores for evidence of excess mortality over time by country, here are the plots for 15-44, and all ages. It doesn’t seem like there was excess mortality in the 15-44 age bracket (maybe except Hungary), or vaccine-related excess mortality, but it does appear there was pandemic-related excess. There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates, and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake available for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero/low-Covid and highly vaccinated) had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. That doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination just seems really difficult to reconcile with the data.

> The obvious fearmongering and irrationality, especially from so-called "experts", was quite intense and prolific in Canada, too.

So much death and suffering and bereavement and sorrow the scale of which I have never witnessed in my entire life and I still read comments like these. Baffling!

A more serious take: excess deaths worldwide put us at 20+ millions deaths [1].

[1] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.

https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...

The official numbers in Russia are pure bullshit. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates is a better estimate.

Btw if we look at the excess mortality data, it showed a pretty good temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality. Similar with UK data. There are also data from many other countries available, e.g. Economist, and latest plots for 100 countries. This would seem to reconcile with bodies like the USA CDC, UK ONS etc. claiming that the vast majority (>85%) of C19 deaths has C19 as the underlying cause.

There are also data from many other countries you can check, e.g. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates. Here are the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess. Various countries like Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Norway and more (mostly countries that were Zero-Covid/low-Covid, highly vaccinated, and relatively less affected by the pandemic) that had little to no (or even negative) excess mortality. This doesn’t really reconcile with the possibility of vaccine-related excess, but it’s compatible with pandemic-related excess. The claim/narrative that the excess mortality may somehow be related to or driven by vaccination seems a really difficult one to reconcile with the data.