emerging-trajectories VS sketch

I think LLMs can do a lot more than people assume, but they need to be given the proper frameworks.

When was the last time a researcher, economist, etc. was given 10,000 papers and simply told "do some original work"? That's not how it works. Daniel (the author) provides some good examples where _streamlined_ work can happen, but again, this is pretty basic stuff.

To push this further, though, imagine LLMs that fill in frameworks... A few steps here: (1) do a lit review, (2) fill in the framework, (3) discuss what might be missing, and maybe even try and fill in the missing information.

I'm doing something like this with politics and economics (see: https://emergingtrajectories.com/) and it works generally well. I think with a ton more engineering, curating of knowledge bases, etc., one can get these LLMs to actually find some new "nuggets" of information.

Admittedly, it's very hard, but I think there's something there.

RAG will have a place in the LLM world, since it's a way to obtain data/facts/info for relevant queries.

Since you asked about alternatives...

(a) "World models" where LLMs structure information into code, structured data, etc. and query those models will likely be a thing. AlphaGeometry uses this[1], and people have tried to abstract this in different ways[2].

(b) Depending on how you define RAG, knowledge graphs could be a form of RAG or alternatively an alternative to them. Companies like Elemental Cognition[3] are building distinct alternatives to RAG that use such graphs and give LLMs the ability to run queries on said graphs. Another approach here is to build "fact databases" where, you structure observations about the world into standalone concepts/ideas/observations and reference those[4]. Again, similar to RAG but not quite RAG as we know it today.

[1] https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphageometry-an-olymp...

[2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12672

[3] https://ec.ai/

[4] https://emergingtrajectories.com/

For those interested in using search-augmented "reasoning", I implemented something similar in Emerging Trajectories[1], an open source package that forecasts geopolitical and economic events. We extract facts[2] from various websites (Google searches, news articles, RSS feeds) and have the LLM generate a hypothesis on a metric.

We're tracking the info forecasts to see how well this does for future events. For example, we're pitting the LLMs against each other to predict March 2024 CPI[3].

[1] https://emergingtrajectories.com/

[2] Sample code: https://github.com/wgryc/emerging-trajectories/blob/main/eme...

[3] https://emergingtrajectories.com/a/statement/28

I'm working on research agents to help with economic, financial, and political research. These agents are open source (see: https://github.com/wgryc/emerging-trajectories).

The use cases are pretty straight forward and low risk:

1. Run a Google web search.

2. Query a news API.

3. Write a document based on the above, while citing sources.

Here's an example of something written yesterday, where I'm forecasting whether July 2024 will be the hottest on record: https://emergingtrajectories.com/a/forecast/74

This is working well in that the writeups are great and there are some "aha" moments, like the agent finding and referencing the The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)... Very cool! I wouldn't have thought of it.

Then there's the part where the agent also tells me that the Oregon Department of Transportation has holidays during the summer, which doesn't matter at all.

So, YMMV, as they say... But I am more productive with these agents. I wouldn't publish anything formally without confirming and reviewing the content, though.

LLM agents to forecast geopolitical and economic events.

- Site: https://emergingtrajectories.com/

- GitHub repo: https://github.com/wgryc/emerging-trajectories

I've helped a number of companies build various sorts of LLM-powered apps (chatbots mainly) and found it interesting but not incredibly inspiring. The above is my attempt to build something no one else is working on.

It's been a lot of fun. Not sure if it'll be a "thing" ever, but I enjoy it.

We've made a lot of data tooling things based on LLMs, and are in the process of rebranding and launching our main product.

1. sketch (in notebook, ai for pandas) https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch

2. datadm (open source, "chat with data", with support for the open source LLMs (https://github.com/approximatelabs/datadm)

3. Our main product: julyp. https://julyp.com/ (currently under very active rebrand and cleanup) -- but a "chat with data" style app, with a lot of specialized features. I'm also streaming me using it (and sometimes building it) every weekday on twitch to solve misc data problems (https://www.twitch.tv/bluecoconut)

For your next question, about the stack and deploy:

This morning I added a "Related Projects" [3] Section to the Buckaroo docs. If Buckaroo doesn't solve your problem, look at one of the other linked projects (like Mito).

[1] https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch

[2] https://github.com/paddymul/buckaroo

[3] https://buckaroo-data.readthedocs.io/en/latest/FAQ.html

For GPT/Copilot style help for pandas, in notebooks REPL flow (without needing to install plugins), I built sketch. I genuinely use it every-time I'm working on pandas dataframes for a quick one-off analysis. Just makes the iteration loop so much faster. (Specifically the `.sketch.howto`, anecdotally I actually don't use `.sketch.ask` anymore)

https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch

https://github.com/approximatelabs/lambdaprompt It has served all of my personal use-cases since making it, including powering `sketch` (copilot for pandas) https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch

Core things it does: Uses jinja templates, does sync and async, and most importantly treats LLM completion endpoints as "function calls", which you can compose and build structures around just with simple python. I also combined it with fastapi so you can just serve up any templates you want directly as rest endpoints. It also offers callback hooks so you can log & trace execution graphs.

All together its only ~600 lines of python.

I haven't had a chance to really push all the different examples out there, but most "complex behaviors", so there aren't many patterns to copy. But if you're comfortable in python, then I think it offers a pretty good interface.

I hope to get back to it sometime in the next week to introduce local-mode (eg. all the open source smaller models are now available, I want to make those first-class)

Please look at sketch and langchain pandas/SQL plugins. I have seen excellent results with both of these approaches. Both of these approaches will require you to send metadata to openAI.

👉 Understand your data through questions 👉 Create code from plain text Quick Read: https://www.marktechpost.com/2023/02/01/meet-sketch-an-ai-code-writing-assistant-for-pandas/ Github: https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch

(3) Asking for re-writes of failed queries (happens occasionally) also helps

The main challenge I think with a lot of these "look it works" tools for data applications, is how do you get an interface that actually will be easy to adopt. The chat-bot style shown here (discord and slack integration) I can see being really valuable, as I believe there has been some traction with these style integrations with data catalog systems recently. People like to ask data questions to other people in slack, adding a bot that tries to answer might short-circuit a lot of this!

We built a prototype where we applied similar techniques to the pandas-code-writing part of the stack, trying to help keep data scientists / data analysts "in flow", integrating the code answers in notebooks (similar to how co-pilot puts suggestions in-line) -- and released https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch a little while ago.

Python AI Helper https://github.com/approximatelabs/sketch