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I came up with an algorithm that, given a goal time and probability distributions for the in game time duration of each segment of a run, finds an optimal reset strategy. By optimal I mean that it is a strategy so that the average real world time it takes to reach the goal time is as low as possible. I have implemented this in the github repository https://github.com/koenbres04/ResetOptimization. The README of this repository gives a more detailed explanation of the algorithm and exactly to what types of speedruns the model applies well.
the people behind livesplit are very open to talking about their code I'm sure. talk to them here https://livesplit.org/
I built something pretty similar to this a while back, I think using the same algorithm, though my tool was much less polished. Would be cool if this were built into livesplit or something. https://github.com/JHaack4/ResetPolicySolver
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