Magician-turned-mathematician uncovers bias in coin flipping: 51% (2004)

• betfair-exchange-hi-lo-odds

  4 31 1.4 Haskell

  Discontinued This repository contains code to efficiently compute exact odds for Betfair's Exchange Hi Lo card game in polynomial time and space relative to the number of cards in the deck. See README.md

[2] https://github.com/jpcooper/betfair-exchange-hi-lo-odds

• BetFair_Arbitrer

  1 35 0.0 Python

  Automatic arbitrer in Betfair Exchange under the hypothesis of Poisson Process

I wasn't aware of that paper, but it seems we came to a similar conclusion. From the paper:

> Across all sports, scoring tempo - when scoring events occur - is remarkably well-described by a Poisson process, in which scoring events occur independently with a sport-specific rate at each second on the game clock.

So, yes, basically that was my concept. Estimate its parameters and then you'll have the "real" odds. Any difference with the market ones is a potential of profit (considering the house fees).

I couldn't backtest it since I couldn't find free historical data for all types of markets (then again, maybe I didn't look hard enough). I forward tested it, though, and it seemed to work.

My code is here [1], which also links to a blog post describing the method. Feel free to take a look and contact me to discuss these ideas.

Also, if you're interested in mathematically modelling probabilities, I'm looking for team members to develop a product to estimate the risk of default in loans. After all, a loan is another kind of bet, that takes place in a slightly harder to model environment.

[1] https://github.com/ghgr/BetFair_Arbitrer

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