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538 maintains one of the only ratings of international teams in existence, and probably the only good one. FIFA's Elo is suitable as a measure of past performance, but it's not useful for projecting match outcomes. (As much as I love CONCACAF, I'm not sure I'd take the US and Mexico over Germany. Nor would I take Belgium over Brazil.) 538's SPI metric, unlike FIFA's, is designed to be predictive. Using their current ratings of international teams, and re-implementing their methodology in a spreadsheet, I can compute projections for any matchup.
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