538 says they scale projected wins to Elo when making a team's preseason rating. What does this mean?

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  • data

    Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight

  • If you download the full data, for each game it shows each team's ELO ratings and the winning probability implied by the ELO rating (it shows that with and without the various adjustments applied). So it'd be possible to reverse-engineer it. Glancing through a few games featuring 1500-ELO visiting teams, it looks like roughly 1 point of ELO is 2 points of winning percentage, but I doubt that's linear through the whole range.

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