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In that case, per your your definition, there will always be edgecases. Take a look at ARC for an example of something that is easy for humans to do, but not yet doable by any AI at anywhere close to a human level. In respect to forecasting, I couldn't honestly say with any degree of confidence. Scaling larger transformer models may hit a roadblock, or it may work for everything, or there may be another development which changes the game. The soonest I think AGI that meets your definition will happen is 10 years from now, but I'm not confident in that prediction.
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