covid-19-excess-deaths-track VS mcculley

https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...

They get their data from the World Mortality Dataset (https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality). They claim their modeled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020.

I haven't dug into the details of the methodology but it appears very sensible. Of course it's very dependent on overall mortality rates having been accurately reported to begin with.

If the Economist keeps this this chart going long enough, we should expect that in countries worst affected by covid, future mortality rates will fall below the expected baseline. The simple (if somewhat morbid) logic being that in those places the most vulnerable people will have already died.

Code and data here https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...

Really nice to see a 'legacy' publication embrace open source

Thank you. I did not imagine anyone would actually like the layout/UI. I have been looking for input on how to improve it.

The site itself is just handcoded HTML: https://github.com/mcculley/mcculley.github.io/blob/master/V...

The polar area diagrams are generated by Java code I wrote for this purpose: https://github.com/mcculley/ObservedDeathVisualizer

The bar charts and the line graph are generated by Datawrapper (https://app.datawrapper.de) using the CSVs exported by the aforementioned code.