Our great sponsors
-
covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker
Source code and data for The Economist's covid-19 excess deaths tracker
-
covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19 pandemic
-
InfluxDB
Power Real-Time Data Analytics at Scale. Get real-time insights from all types of time series data with InfluxDB. Ingest, query, and analyze billions of data points in real-time with unbounded cardinality.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...
They get their data from the World Mortality Dataset (https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality). They claim their modeled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020.
I haven't dug into the details of the methodology but it appears very sensible. Of course it's very dependent on overall mortality rates having been accurately reported to begin with.
If the Economist keeps this this chart going long enough, we should expect that in countries worst affected by covid, future mortality rates will fall below the expected baseline. The simple (if somewhat morbid) logic being that in those places the most vulnerable people will have already died.
Yes, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
And for India, The Economist estimates 1.1 to 7.6 m excess deaths, implying 27 to 184 (!) infections per 100 people so far.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...
They get their data from the World Mortality Dataset (https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality). They claim their modeled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020.
I haven't dug into the details of the methodology but it appears very sensible. Of course it's very dependent on overall mortality rates having been accurately reported to begin with.
If the Economist keeps this this chart going long enough, we should expect that in countries worst affected by covid, future mortality rates will fall below the expected baseline. The simple (if somewhat morbid) logic being that in those places the most vulnerable people will have already died.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...
They get their data from the World Mortality Dataset (https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality). They claim their modeled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020.
I haven't dug into the details of the methodology but it appears very sensible. Of course it's very dependent on overall mortality rates having been accurately reported to begin with.
If the Economist keeps this this chart going long enough, we should expect that in countries worst affected by covid, future mortality rates will fall below the expected baseline. The simple (if somewhat morbid) logic being that in those places the most vulnerable people will have already died.