bad-forecast-good-decision
darts
| bad-forecast-good-decision | darts | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47 | |
| 17 | 7,321 | |
| - | 2.2% | |
| 10.0 | 9.1 | |
| about 2 years ago | 6 days ago | |
| TeX | Python | |
| BSD 2-clause "Simplified" License | Apache License 2.0 |
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bad-forecast-good-decision
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Is it worth staying in my first iob out of college for the “experience” in my resume, even if I’m not learning any new skills?
Interacting directly with the people who have the problem you're trying to solve is a great cure for arrogance. Even if you deliver a perfect prediction, does that help anyone make a useful decision? Check out this pre-print: Bad Forecast, Good Decision which shows how there are cases where better forecasting can lead to worse outcomes.
darts
- Darts: Python lib for forecasting and anomaly detection on time series
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[D] Doubts on the implementation of LSTMs for timeseries prediction (like including weather forecasts)
Don't use an LSTM. Get up to date with SoTA methods and read the papers in the field. LSTMs are not the way forward. Read the papers I suggested. It would be very useful to come to grips with both the Time Series Repository (https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library) and Darts (https://github.com/unit8co/darts) as these are widely used for research and in industry.
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Facebook Prophet: library for generating forecasts from any time series data
As others have pointed out, Prophet is not a particularly good model for forecasting, and has been superseded by a multitude of other models. If you want to do time series forecasting, I'd recommend using Darts: https://github.com/unit8co/darts. Darts implements a wide range of models and is fairly easy to use.
The problem with time series forecasting in general is that they make a lot of assumptions on the shape of your data, and you'll find you're spending a lot of time figuring out mutating your data. For example, they expect that your data comes at a very regular interval. This is fine if it's, say, the data from a weather station. This doesn't work well in clinical settings (imagine a patient admitted into the ER -- there is a burst of data, followed by no data).
That said, there's some interesting stuff out there that I've been experimenting with that seems to be more tolerant of irregular time series and can be quite useful. If you're interested in exchanging ideas, drop me a line (email in my profile).
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Elevate Your Python Skills: Machine Learning Packages That Transformed My Journey as ML Engineer
3. darts
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Aeon: A unified framework for machine learning with time series
Looking forward to checking this out! How does this compare with darts[1]?
[1] https://unit8co.github.io/darts/
- [D] Hybrid forecasting framework ARIMA-LSTM
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[D] Do any of you have experience using Darts for forecasting?
Darts is an open-source Python library by Unit8 for easy handling, pre-processing, and forecasting of time series. It contains an array of models, from standard statistical models such as ARIMA to deep neural networks. https://unit8co.github.io/darts/
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gluonts VS darts - a user suggested alternative
2 projects | 13 Apr 2023
active support
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A Simple Guide to Feature Engineering in the Forecast Menu
The new Forecast menu, featuring the open-source Darts Time Series library, offers script-friendly functionality. It's also easy to use. Don't have any data to load yet? Enter through the Stocks or Crypto menus.
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Ask HN: Data Scientists, what libraries do you use for timeseries forecasting?
I would recommend Darts in Python [1]. It's easy to use (think fit()/predict()) and includes
* Statistical models (ETS, (V)ARIMA(X), etc)
* ML models (sklearn models, LGBM, etc)
* Many recent deep learning models (N-BEATS, TFT, etc)
* Seamlessly works on multi-dimensional series
* Models can be trained on multiple series
* Many models offer rich support for probabilistic forecasts
* Model evaluation is easy: Darts has many metrics, offers backtest etc
* Deep learning scales to large datasets, using GPUs, TPUs, etc
* There's even now an explainability module for some of the models - showing you what matters for computing the forecasts
* (coming soon): an anomaly detection module :)
* (also, it even include FB Prophet if you really want to use it)
Warning: I'm probably biased because I'm Darts creator.
[1] https://github.com/unit8co/darts
What are some alternatives?
awesome-project-ideas - Curated list of Machine Learning, NLP, Vision, Recommender Systems Project Ideas
sktime - A unified framework for machine learning with time series
Prophet - Tool for producing high quality forecasts for time series data that has multiple seasonality with linear or non-linear growth.
pytorch-forecasting - Time series forecasting with PyTorch
DeepLearningExamples - State-of-the-Art Deep Learning scripts organized by models - easy to train and deploy with reproducible accuracy and performance on enterprise-grade infrastructure.
Kats - Kats, a kit to analyze time series data, a lightweight, easy-to-use, generalizable, and extendable framework to perform time series analysis, from understanding the key statistics and characteristics, detecting change points and anomalies, to forecasting future trends.
tsai - Time series Timeseries Deep Learning Machine Learning Pytorch fastai | State-of-the-art Deep Learning library for Time Series and Sequences in Pytorch / fastai
statsforecast - Lightning ⚡️ fast forecasting with statistical and econometric models.
nixtla - TimeGPT-1: production ready pre-trained Time Series Foundation Model for forecasting and anomaly detection. Generative pretrained transformer for time series trained on over 100B data points. It's capable of accurately predicting various domains such as retail, electricity, finance, and IoT with just a few lines of code 🚀.
neural_prophet - NeuralProphet: A simple forecasting package