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Back in 2020, the Victorian state government was relying for its “roadmap” on some modelling. Run on a supercomputer, the Premier said. Basically two guys: Blakely and Duckett. I looked at Blakely’s modelling. It had some funny assumptions which made me say, as Asimov said is the basis of science, “that’s funny…” Such as an assumption of a peak in Victoria of 58,000 infections a day - that’s 0.9% of our population, so it’s like the US having a peak of 3 million infections a day, or Sweden 90,000 - okay, those guys test poorly, but even if you quadrupled their case numbers that’s still an order of magnitude out. “That’s funny…”
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