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Having given this some thought before, I think the minimak-4 layout would be the threshold for me. If those 4 keys were repositioned and that was the layout on every keyboard, no talk of bigrams or inward rolls would convince me the pain of switching is worth it. ASERT would be the other minimal change option (https://github.com/AlternateKeyboard/ASERT). But we don't live in that world. QWERTY is so abysmally bad and my job involves daylong typing, and Colemak doesn't just move keys - it takes bigrams and finger rolling into account and has been great for me. So basically - if QWERTY was only marginally better, I'd have stayed, but since it isn't and I switched, I wanted the switch to be significantly better to be worth all the hassle.
Dunno. Recently I've been tinkering with a layout optimization tool (from the producer of the MTGAP layout). I realized that even the slightest change in parameters seem to result in a different layout. They all have impressive stats on paper, and they have some similarities (like vowels tend to be grouped on one side); but still they are quite different. Unless we come up with a concrete model of typing behavior, which I believe is immensely difficult, it doesn't matter how optimized your layout is. It is probably unoptimized in some yet unknown aspect of typing.
Workman
I took a look over this, it's not too unlike ASETG that I made. If I'm not mistaken you're the creator?