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Based on historical data, it would err on being too slow. Or, more to the point, of moving the block size limit in the wrong direction. Actual network capacity has increased a lot since 2017, and the block size limit should have a corresponding increase. Your simulations with historical data show that it would have decreased down to roughly 1.2 MB. This would be bad for BCH, as it would mean (a) occasional congestion and confirmation delays when bursts of on-chain activity occur, and (b) unnecessary dissuasion of further activity.
This is a variation of the above but where nodes would accept to automatically execute some adjustment in their consensus-sensitive policies, and in response to coinbase or block header messages. Notable proposal of this category was BIP-0105, and the idea resurfaced in a recent discussion with zawy.
