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I had a more elaborate answer, but my Firefox crashed, so here's the short version: I don't think anybody can predict what the exact chance of humanity collapsing is. We don't really have anything to base this on. However, recent years have made me more optimistic again, as we have seen important trends in the right direction. For example, coal usage has peaked some years ago, renewables are not almost always cheaper than fossil fuels. Climate change is taking more and more seriously in politics. Is that enough? I don't know, but at least we finally started moving in the right direction. If you are not aware of it, I recommend "Our World in Data": https://ourworldindata.org/ They have nicely summarized much of this.