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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19 pandemic
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Good point on the variation that a 5 year rolling approach could add. I think using a 5 year rolling baseline for cumulative excess death wouldn't be the best approach, because at some point, your baseline is no longer representing what you intend (# of deaths in a world without covid). Trying to dig into this data set on Github(https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model), I see it comes from the economist, where they note that "Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task."- this would make me think they aren't using an updating 5 year rolling baseline. Looking into their methodology page I run into a paywall: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/13/how-we-estimated-the-true-death-toll-of-the-pandemic. Do you have any more info on this?