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I also don't doubt the overall trend of this, but people tend to see posts like this and read way too much into it and you see people extrapolating this out to the entire playerbase. I expect that the banner will be the worst on paimon.moe overall, and amongst whales/dolphins/players that are 'dedicated' (e.g., frequent youtube/reddit/billibilli/NGA, etc.) but that the overall banner sales will not be as low as a bunch of people seem to be expecting, say around the level of Childe's original banner.
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