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paimon-moe
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Do you have his signature weapon? If so, EM could be better still but unlikely, if not, then you're probably on too much EM. Hard for humans to calculate this kind of thing though, if you want to be sure, take screenshots of your Gilded Dreams pieces for Genshin Optimizer: https://frzyc.github.io/genshin-optimizer/ and on Al-Haitham's Multi-Optimization Target button at the top, put this in and select it as optimization target on the Optimize tab:
As the others have already mentioned, it's literally 50:50. There is also a community site to record your pull history (paimon.moe). If you're curious about the stat, you could check home > global wish stat > check which banner you want to see.