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Hopefully someone could point me in the right direction to solve this. It's tough because I don't have one of these keyboards and I've never built and installed a qmk firmware. My python project is on github in case you want to try it. It just displays an image in a borderless window when you hold a key for a few 100ms and hides it when you let go. Works pretty well but doesn't detect layer/raise keys.
2 weeks ago, I made an AHK script doing what you describe reading HID message sent from QMK, the code is here : KBLayerHelper
That said, have you considered a slightly more analog approach? When I was learning my layout, I just went on QMK configurator, found my keyboard and the layout I modified. Then I went through and updated it with my changes, printed it all out, cut it up, and taped the cutouts to the bottom of my monitor(s).
ZSA's oryx training does that, but it needs web-usb iirc. As they use a QMK fork, someone with more experience may be able to reproduce that with their own layout and a basic that handles the "monitoring traffic".