covid-19-excess-deaths-track
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covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
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covid-19-excess-deaths-track
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Covid-19 may have killed nearly 3M in India, far more than official counts show
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...
They get their data from the World Mortality Dataset (https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality). They claim their modeled baselines fit a linear trend for year, to account for long-term increases or decreases in mortality, and a fixed effect for each week or month up to February 2020.
I haven't dug into the details of the methodology but it appears very sensible. Of course it's very dependent on overall mortality rates having been accurately reported to begin with.
If the Economist keeps this this chart going long enough, we should expect that in countries worst affected by covid, future mortality rates will fall below the expected baseline. The simple (if somewhat morbid) logic being that in those places the most vulnerable people will have already died.
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The Economist tracks excess deaths
Code and data here https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-track...
Really nice to see a 'legacy' publication embrace open source
covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model
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Our model suggests that global deaths remain 5% above pre-Covid forecasts
It might be worth generating a version that excludes Russia and Ukraine.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-globa...
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WHO downgrades COVID pandemic, says it's no longer emergency
Btw if we look at the excess mortality data, it showed a pretty good temporal correlation with Covid waves/mortality. Similar with UK data. There are also data from many other countries available, e.g. Economist, and latest plots for 100 countries. This would seem to reconcile with bodies like the USA CDC, UK ONS etc. claiming that the vast majority (>85%) of C19 deaths has C19 as the underlying cause.
- Brazil hits 700,000 virus deaths, 2nd highest in the world
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[OC] Total excess mortality per million people during the pandemic
Easiest is to use the linear trend in deaths over the 2015-2019 interval (be it increase or decrease). Doing so, and comparing all countries up to the present (using models to account for non-reporting in recent weeks / many countries) you get this: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
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The death records show the COVID vaccines are shortening lifespan worldwide
There’s also the latest data from many other countries (The Economist), and the latest plots with Covid mortality and vaccine uptake for 100 countries. In various countries it doesn’t look like there’s a temporal correlation with excess.
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[OC] Estimated Excess Mortality during COVID in the United States, China, Russia, and 8 European Countries
Additionally, these stats are based on excess mortality stats(not Covid-19 deaths) compiled by the Economist, not exactly a CPC news outlet, and nowhere in their article do they mention the data being suspect.
The Economist did not use the Chinese Covid data at all. As explained here, they simply look at projected life expectancy in populations vs actual life expectancy. Thus, that actually tracks the total number of people who died as a result of the pandemic, not just infection. So for example, increases in liver cirrhosis from alcoholism caused by lockdowns would be included.
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There were approximately 14.83 million excess deaths associated with COVID-19 across the world from 2020 to 2021, according to estimates by the WHO reported in Nature. This estimate is nearly three times the number of deaths reported to have been caused by COVID-19 over the same period.
The Economist puts it at 20.8 million: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
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Sweden fucked around and found out
Actually, Finland has a higher excess mortality rate than Sweden and Sweden has one of the lowest rates in Europe. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
What are some alternatives?
covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker - Source code and data for The Economist's covid-19 excess deaths tracker
coronavirus-dashboard - Dashboard for tracking Coronavirus (COVID-19) across the UK
covid-pass-verifier - The COVID Pass Verifier app is the official NHS COVID Pass Verifier for England and Wales. NHS COVID Pass Verifier app is a secure way to scan an individual’s NHS COVID Pass and check that they have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, had a negative test, or have recovered from COVID-19.
duckduckgo-locales - Translation files for <a href="https://duckduckgo.com"> </a>
COVID-19 - Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
covariants - Real-time updates and information about key SARS-CoV-2 variants, plus the scripts that generate this information.
covid-19-data - Data on COVID-19 (coronavirus) cases, deaths, hospitalizations, tests • All countries • Updated daily by Our World in Data
covid-19-the-economist-globa
schnelltesttest.de
covid-19-data - A repository of data on coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S.
owid-static - Auto-generated static pages of the full ourworldindata.org site.
tta-elastic - Official Trump Twitter Archive V2 source